Europe Elections and America
There are two major political situations that could possibly change how the US will respond to the world! Surprise, neither of them is the standoff between Bush and Congress over the Iraq War. Instead, they are both taking place in Europe. The two countries are Turkey and France.
Turkey is on the verge of its fifth military intervention since 1960. While, this is may surprise the casual observer, I have seen it as a real possibility since 2002. The issues are quite complex and involve not only the military’s position in society, but also the Turkish National Myth.
Turkey is a nation-state, in the fact that the Turkish defines it people who live in it. This obviously is to the detriment of the Kurdish and Armenian minorities who live in Turkey. But, it is also traced back to Kemal Ataturk. Ataturk was an army officer in the Ottoman Empire who after World War I helped redefine what Turkey was. And, like George Washington, he is revered as the founder of our country.
The military, especially, takes his legacy and his political theory seriously. His political theory, Kemalism, is written into the Turkish constitution and is the founding principles of the center-left, Republican People’s Party (RPP). The six principles of Kemalism are: Republicanism, Populism, Secularism, Revolutionalism, Nationalism and Statism. The military is willing to intervene when civilian authorities challenge these ideas.
It is the third one, Secularism, which is being challenged by the civilian authorities today. The strongest parliamentary party is the AKP party. The AKP is an Islamist right wing political party. The AKP is seeking to hold new elections in June and try to get its candidate into the presidency. For an openly Islamist party to do this is a major threat to Kemalism; therefore, the military is seeking to intervene with one of its bloodless coups where it will make some constitutional changes and hand power back to civilians – with a former general as president.
The problem for the generals is that the AKP is not Islamist like you and I would initially think Islamist. Its ideological compatriots are not al-Qaida or the Islamic Revolutionary Party in Iran. Instead the AKP has found a balance between its religious foundation and the secular views of the Turkey. It is more comparable to the Christian Democrats in Germany or the Republican Party in the United States. While I am not a fan of wither of these parties, neither is looking to put a Caliph type leader as king of Germany or the United States (W’s rhetoric not withstanding).
A military intervention while to the letter of Kemalism would not be to the spirit. Kemalism was developed at a time when they were rejecting the old Ottoman State. Today, Turkey is a strong nation-state, while it may still have to deal with its past in the Armenian Genocide and its present in the standing of Kurdish minorities. The AKP is standing for the Turkish definition of the secular state with a foundation in religious ethics. However, I suggest all Turks to vote RPP, the future within a common market in the EU will require the secular welfare institutions that they represent.
Now let us turn to Sunday’s run-off election in France. The run off between Ms. Royal and Mr. Sarkozy is the classic Right versus Left. It is the classic election that we see in the United States. The two biggest parties are trying to find a way to get the median voter, filling in the center undecideds.
On the surface it seems that the White House should support the centre-right of Mr. Sarkozy’s Gaullist party (UMP). Unfortunately for Washington its not that simple. The UMP is also traditionally nationalist. Like Ataturk Charles de Gaulle defined the party’s approach to politics. He pulled out of the NATO command, while remaining linked to NATO ideals. The UMP is traditionally anti-internationalist and seeks to find ways to give France a commanding role in certain issues in world and EU politics.
Ms. Royal’s left wing party (more center-left than their name would imply) is the Socialists. The Socialists are more internationalist than the UMP. However, Ms. Royal has made many anti-Bush comments during the campaign. Of course, this may be kind of like a new member of the Red Sox saying, “I’m here to beat the Yankees” – just easy political points.
Therefore, it would seem that the White House would like its ideological compatriots the UMP to win. However, the problem is the UMP is too much like the White House: seeking French exceptionalism and leadership, to be of much use.
For my two cents, the Socialists have declared that they will use state intervention to protect labor rights, while Mr. Sarkozy has implied he will protect shareholder rights. Well, most shareholders are already rich and with the protection of public property can defend themselves. Vote Royal!
If the UMP continues to hold office it ill continue to block most Anglo-Saxon led ideas (for good and bad), while if the military intervenes in Turkey the strength of true democracy will be questioned in Turkey. The US most be prepared for the interdependent world to change over the next few weeks.
Turkey is on the verge of its fifth military intervention since 1960. While, this is may surprise the casual observer, I have seen it as a real possibility since 2002. The issues are quite complex and involve not only the military’s position in society, but also the Turkish National Myth.
Turkey is a nation-state, in the fact that the Turkish defines it people who live in it. This obviously is to the detriment of the Kurdish and Armenian minorities who live in Turkey. But, it is also traced back to Kemal Ataturk. Ataturk was an army officer in the Ottoman Empire who after World War I helped redefine what Turkey was. And, like George Washington, he is revered as the founder of our country.
The military, especially, takes his legacy and his political theory seriously. His political theory, Kemalism, is written into the Turkish constitution and is the founding principles of the center-left, Republican People’s Party (RPP). The six principles of Kemalism are: Republicanism, Populism, Secularism, Revolutionalism, Nationalism and Statism. The military is willing to intervene when civilian authorities challenge these ideas.
It is the third one, Secularism, which is being challenged by the civilian authorities today. The strongest parliamentary party is the AKP party. The AKP is an Islamist right wing political party. The AKP is seeking to hold new elections in June and try to get its candidate into the presidency. For an openly Islamist party to do this is a major threat to Kemalism; therefore, the military is seeking to intervene with one of its bloodless coups where it will make some constitutional changes and hand power back to civilians – with a former general as president.
The problem for the generals is that the AKP is not Islamist like you and I would initially think Islamist. Its ideological compatriots are not al-Qaida or the Islamic Revolutionary Party in Iran. Instead the AKP has found a balance between its religious foundation and the secular views of the Turkey. It is more comparable to the Christian Democrats in Germany or the Republican Party in the United States. While I am not a fan of wither of these parties, neither is looking to put a Caliph type leader as king of Germany or the United States (W’s rhetoric not withstanding).
A military intervention while to the letter of Kemalism would not be to the spirit. Kemalism was developed at a time when they were rejecting the old Ottoman State. Today, Turkey is a strong nation-state, while it may still have to deal with its past in the Armenian Genocide and its present in the standing of Kurdish minorities. The AKP is standing for the Turkish definition of the secular state with a foundation in religious ethics. However, I suggest all Turks to vote RPP, the future within a common market in the EU will require the secular welfare institutions that they represent.
Now let us turn to Sunday’s run-off election in France. The run off between Ms. Royal and Mr. Sarkozy is the classic Right versus Left. It is the classic election that we see in the United States. The two biggest parties are trying to find a way to get the median voter, filling in the center undecideds.
On the surface it seems that the White House should support the centre-right of Mr. Sarkozy’s Gaullist party (UMP). Unfortunately for Washington its not that simple. The UMP is also traditionally nationalist. Like Ataturk Charles de Gaulle defined the party’s approach to politics. He pulled out of the NATO command, while remaining linked to NATO ideals. The UMP is traditionally anti-internationalist and seeks to find ways to give France a commanding role in certain issues in world and EU politics.
Ms. Royal’s left wing party (more center-left than their name would imply) is the Socialists. The Socialists are more internationalist than the UMP. However, Ms. Royal has made many anti-Bush comments during the campaign. Of course, this may be kind of like a new member of the Red Sox saying, “I’m here to beat the Yankees” – just easy political points.
Therefore, it would seem that the White House would like its ideological compatriots the UMP to win. However, the problem is the UMP is too much like the White House: seeking French exceptionalism and leadership, to be of much use.
For my two cents, the Socialists have declared that they will use state intervention to protect labor rights, while Mr. Sarkozy has implied he will protect shareholder rights. Well, most shareholders are already rich and with the protection of public property can defend themselves. Vote Royal!
If the UMP continues to hold office it ill continue to block most Anglo-Saxon led ideas (for good and bad), while if the military intervenes in Turkey the strength of true democracy will be questioned in Turkey. The US most be prepared for the interdependent world to change over the next few weeks.
posted by Eucleides of America at 12:17 PM
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