What Would Iran Do?
Here’s shocking news from Tehran: Iran has no plans to stop their nuclear program!
Now for a moment let us consider the situation that Iran is in. Geographically Iran is surrounded on three sides by nuclear powers: Russian to the North, Israel within a flight of Iran in the West, and both India and Pakistan in the East. Nuclear threats to the nation also lie – we are told – in the failed states of Afghanistan and Iraq which both border Iran.
Now, I’m not in favor of nuclear proliferation. And it is bad that the Islamic Republic of Iran should be a nuclear power. Yet, it is reasonable that they both would want nuclear weapons and that they are going to get away with having them. Why? You may ask.
Well, let’s review the last three proliferation dangers, which the United States has faced and how the Bush Administration has responded to them. With these as a background to the issue of Iran we can see Iran’s most reasonable course of action in the showdown with the US and Europe.
Iraq
First we must hop onto Mr. Roger’s trolley to the Land of Make-Believe. King Friday – George Bush – actually believes the reports of Iraq’s impending nuclear weapons and believes that the US must act to stop it. Now, what does the United States do? They invade Iraq and occupy it at the cost of $240 million dollars a day. And, in the process the US has destroyed the government and created a safe haven for terrorists and a good old-fashioned guerrilla insurgency for independence.
North Korea
The People’s Republic of Korea is a Sultanistic State that is an international pariah and the state apparatus has all the political trappings of Stalinism without any of the economic benefits. Yet, the United States chose not to invade to keep it from having nuclear weapons. In the 1950s the US had tried that and the backwards Chinese Army repelled the “UN” forces. Today, however China is not an isolated country that relies on its billion people to repel attackers who try to invade – or get too close to the Yalu River. Instead, it is a world economic player with a military that is slowly modernizing. China also has agreed to try to rein in its ally.
India
In July, George Bush took an unusual step with India. While India has been a nuclear capable state since the 1970s, it is only recently that it seemed to have the ability to use such weapons. According to common logic this would make it and its neighbor Pakistan major threats to the world order.
Instead, Pakistan’s military junta has been given ally status by the United States. India and the US signed an agreement where the US will assist India in peaceful uses of nuclear technology – without India having to give up its weapons program.
What would Iran Do?
Now suppose you are geopolitical policy maker in the Islamic Republic of Iran, what would you do? Your three choices of American and world reaction are:
1. Invasion
2. Isolationism; or,
3. Engagement and Assistance.
Option 1 can easily be avoided by developing a nuclear bomb as quickly as possible. The US is going to be tied down militarily in Iraq for years and years to come. (Remember, the US is going to stay the course without a clear sign of whether there is landfall.) On top of this, the Bush Administration’s “coalition of the willing” will not be that willing for another Iraq.
Option 2 with isolation is even trickier. The United States has attempted to isolate Iran for years without much success. All that the US has managed to do is open up the Iranian market to European companies and close its oil market to US companies. China, India, Japan, Korea and Singapore will still all be looking for oil if sanctions go into effect. Do you really think China will sacrifice its double-digit growth with higher energy costs for the sake of an American desire to limit nuclear weapons?
Option 3 – while the longer road – is the winning ticket at the endgame. Iran is a true nation in a part of the world where states were mashed together by the arbitrary lines of British, French and Russian imperialists. It is also the most democratic country in the Persian Gulf. Also, it is a regional power with 60 million people, a strong reasonably modern army, and oil reserves that rank second (or, perhaps third) in the world to the Saudis.
Isolating enemies has not kept North Korea from its program and nor has it toppled Fidel Castro. Iran will go on attempting to make nuclear weapons. The younger generation who was not part of the 1979 Revolution will look on the secular modern world as an example – nuclear power equals world power. At that point, nuclear weapons will be a fait accompli and the US and EU will be forced to come to terms with the nation – either as a friend or a nuclear powered foe.
Now for a moment let us consider the situation that Iran is in. Geographically Iran is surrounded on three sides by nuclear powers: Russian to the North, Israel within a flight of Iran in the West, and both India and Pakistan in the East. Nuclear threats to the nation also lie – we are told – in the failed states of Afghanistan and Iraq which both border Iran.
Now, I’m not in favor of nuclear proliferation. And it is bad that the Islamic Republic of Iran should be a nuclear power. Yet, it is reasonable that they both would want nuclear weapons and that they are going to get away with having them. Why? You may ask.
Well, let’s review the last three proliferation dangers, which the United States has faced and how the Bush Administration has responded to them. With these as a background to the issue of Iran we can see Iran’s most reasonable course of action in the showdown with the US and Europe.
Iraq
First we must hop onto Mr. Roger’s trolley to the Land of Make-Believe. King Friday – George Bush – actually believes the reports of Iraq’s impending nuclear weapons and believes that the US must act to stop it. Now, what does the United States do? They invade Iraq and occupy it at the cost of $240 million dollars a day. And, in the process the US has destroyed the government and created a safe haven for terrorists and a good old-fashioned guerrilla insurgency for independence.
North Korea
The People’s Republic of Korea is a Sultanistic State that is an international pariah and the state apparatus has all the political trappings of Stalinism without any of the economic benefits. Yet, the United States chose not to invade to keep it from having nuclear weapons. In the 1950s the US had tried that and the backwards Chinese Army repelled the “UN” forces. Today, however China is not an isolated country that relies on its billion people to repel attackers who try to invade – or get too close to the Yalu River. Instead, it is a world economic player with a military that is slowly modernizing. China also has agreed to try to rein in its ally.
India
In July, George Bush took an unusual step with India. While India has been a nuclear capable state since the 1970s, it is only recently that it seemed to have the ability to use such weapons. According to common logic this would make it and its neighbor Pakistan major threats to the world order.
Instead, Pakistan’s military junta has been given ally status by the United States. India and the US signed an agreement where the US will assist India in peaceful uses of nuclear technology – without India having to give up its weapons program.
What would Iran Do?
Now suppose you are geopolitical policy maker in the Islamic Republic of Iran, what would you do? Your three choices of American and world reaction are:
1. Invasion
2. Isolationism; or,
3. Engagement and Assistance.
Option 1 can easily be avoided by developing a nuclear bomb as quickly as possible. The US is going to be tied down militarily in Iraq for years and years to come. (Remember, the US is going to stay the course without a clear sign of whether there is landfall.) On top of this, the Bush Administration’s “coalition of the willing” will not be that willing for another Iraq.
Option 2 with isolation is even trickier. The United States has attempted to isolate Iran for years without much success. All that the US has managed to do is open up the Iranian market to European companies and close its oil market to US companies. China, India, Japan, Korea and Singapore will still all be looking for oil if sanctions go into effect. Do you really think China will sacrifice its double-digit growth with higher energy costs for the sake of an American desire to limit nuclear weapons?
Option 3 – while the longer road – is the winning ticket at the endgame. Iran is a true nation in a part of the world where states were mashed together by the arbitrary lines of British, French and Russian imperialists. It is also the most democratic country in the Persian Gulf. Also, it is a regional power with 60 million people, a strong reasonably modern army, and oil reserves that rank second (or, perhaps third) in the world to the Saudis.
Isolating enemies has not kept North Korea from its program and nor has it toppled Fidel Castro. Iran will go on attempting to make nuclear weapons. The younger generation who was not part of the 1979 Revolution will look on the secular modern world as an example – nuclear power equals world power. At that point, nuclear weapons will be a fait accompli and the US and EU will be forced to come to terms with the nation – either as a friend or a nuclear powered foe.
posted by Eucleides of America at 3:27 PM
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